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Forecasting Monthly Sales

Forecasting Monthly Sales

Q You are asked to analyze the information in the case "Forecasting Monthly Sales", page 185 in your text and discuss the 3 questions at the end of the case description. You should analyze the data, draw your conclusions, respond to each question, and prepare a summary of your analysis, including the graph identified in question 1. You should show your work and any supporting tables to support your conclusions. When you have completed your analysis, submit your typed writeup and supporting data in a Word document to this link. This is an individual assignment. Meaning that you are required to submit your work and your work only. Information copied from the internet or any other source not original to you will receive 0 credit. PreviousNext

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1. The following is the graph of the given data for three years. After calculating the 12-month moving average forecast, the same has been plotted in the same graph. From the above graph, it is clear that that there is a uniform sales trend in all the three years. 2. The following is the graph of the trend line of the given data: The required trendline is the y = -1.162x +330.8 The forecast in the question 1, indicates that there is an upward trend of the sales. The coefficient of this trend line is negative, which means the there is a downward trend in the sales. So, these two results clearly contradict. The main reason for this is the differences in the forecasting techniques. The regression analysis mainly focuses on the relation between the two variables, month and sales and the regression trend line is based on the given set of raw data. As the data are not adjusted seasonally, so the trend line based on them is different from the forecast line of seasonally adjusted data.